Ethereum Analysis Based on the Elliott Wave Principle
Ethereum Analysis Based on the Elliott Wave Principle
Research Article
Ethereum Analysis Based on the Elliott Wave Principle
ABSTRACT
This study analyzes Ethereum's price movements within the framework of the Elliott Wave Principle, aiming to evaluate the applicability of the theory in cryptocurrency markets. Supported by technical tools such as Fibonacci ratios and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), the study seeks to forecast Ethereum's long-term price trends. The analyses indicate that Ethereum has been moving within a contracting triangle formation, which could potentially lead to an upward momentum upon completion. Notably, the success of Fibonacci ratios in price predictions and the EMA's role in trend validation have provided significant guidance in understanding Ethereum's price dynamics. The effectiveness of the Elliott Wave Principle in analyzing market behavior has been highlighted, while also emphasizing that such analyses are inherently subjective and should be complemented with other technical tools. The study demonstrates that the Elliott Wave Principle could serve as a strategic guide for investors dealing with highly volatile assets like Ethereum.
1. INTRODUCTION
Studies on the applicability of the Elliott Wave Theory in today's financial world indicate that this theory serves as an effective tool for predicting cyclical market movements. It has been particularly emphasized as a modern analytical method commonly used in stock and commodity markets (Frost and Russell, 1996).
The Elliott Wave Theory is one of the most important technical analysis tools used to understand the dynamics of financial markets. Developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott, this theory suggests that price movements are based on a specific pattern. By analyzing the psychological behavior of market participants, the theory provides a method for interpreting price movements and predicting future price targets (Prechter & Frost, 1978). Furthermore, the Elliott Wave Theory is regarded as a comprehensive investment system capable of analyzing markets across all time frames (hourly, daily, weekly…) and incorporating all price movement patterns to inform investment decisions (Gunn, 2009).
Occasionally, wave patterns or models in the market may deviate from expectations, resulting in unrecognized movements. However, such instances are rare, and the vast majority of stock market movements, regardless of scale, can be reasonably interpreted within the framework of the Elliott Wave Principle (Frost and Russell, 1996).
This study examines the application of the Elliott Wave Theory by analyzing Ethereum's price movements. Specifically, it evaluates the possibility that Ethereum, currently moving within a higher-degree triangle formation, could rise to the level of 10,000 USD following the completion of its E wave.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
The accurate application of wave analysis allows investors to comprehend market trends and forecast future price movements. This method is particularly valuable as a tool for long-term investment strategies (Mendez and Sociales, 2001:12).
According to Volna and Kotyrba (2018), the Elliott Wave Principle suggests that crowd psychology oscillates sequentially between pessimism and optimism, forming specific and measurable patterns. Financial markets provide one of the most accessible domains for observing the functioning of the Elliott Wave Principle, as shifting investor sentiment is recorded in the form of price movements. If an individual can identify the recurring patterns within prices and determine their current position within those patterns, they can predict the future direction of the trend.
Elliott wave patterns do not always form in identical ways and may exhibit minor variations (Volna et al., 2013). These patterns can differ in amplitude and duration. A seemingly similar pattern might, in fact, differ, or a visually distinct pattern might share the same underlying structure. Moreover, these patterns may not encompass every point within a time series. However, methods have been developed to analyze wave movements and correctly interpret these differences.
Elliott wave patterns can be classified as upward or downward trend patterns. Upward trend patterns indicate that prices will move higher, while downward trend patterns suggest that market prices will decline. The Elliott wave pattern is associated with Fibonacci sequence numbers and the golden ratio, implying that every market fluctuation is confined within a finite range but regulated within a specific boundary. Understanding the relationship between Elliott waves, mathematical ratios, and the peak and trough points of price movements can make this approach more explicit and effective (Wang et al., 2013).
This theory accurately explains the workings of stock markets and has become a significant tool in securities trading. The Elliott Wave Theory, linked with the Fibonacci sequence and the golden ratio, comprises five advancing waves and three corrective waves (Duan et al., 2018). The primary pattern suggests that market prices will enter a downward trend, while the corrective waves (counter patterns) indicate a transition to an upward trend in market price movements.
3. METHODOLOGY
3.1 The Elliott Wave Theory
The Elliott Wave Theory was introduced by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s. Elliott believed that stock market trends followed a recurring pattern, which could be predicted in both the short and long term. He shared these ideas in his 1938 book, The Wave Principle.
Elliott argued that what might appear to be chaotic movements in stock market data actually reflected a harmony found in nature. His discoveries were entirely based on observation, yet he sought to explain his findings through psychological reasoning. The core principle of his theory is that a pattern consists of eight waves.
As clearly illustrated in the diagram, waves 1, 3, and 5 follow the general trend, while waves 2 and 4 correct this trend. The a, b, and c waves also serve to correct the general trend, with waves a and c continuing the correction and wave b offering resistance. Elliott observed that each wave consists of smaller waves, which follow the same pattern, creating what is known as a super-cycle, a larger model of market behavior.
The numbers in the diagram represent the wave count at different scales. For instance, the entire diagram contains two major waves: the impulse wave and the corrective wave. The impulse wave consists of 5 waves, while the corrective wave comprises 3 waves. The 5 waves within the impulse wave are divided into 21 sub-waves, and these sub-waves are further divided into 89 smaller waves. Similarly, the corrective wave contains 13 sub-waves, which are further divided into 55 smaller waves.
These numbers are part of the Fibonacci sequence, which is widely observed in various aspects of nature.
3.1.2 Impulse Waves
Wave 1:According to Person (2007), the first wave emerges from a consolidation phase following a prolonged price decline, serving as the starting point of a new trend. These waves are often perceived as minor corrective movements and are the smallest among the impulse waves. Technical analysts commonly refer to this stage as the "accumulation phase." Tirea and Negru (2016) describe the first wave as a period when market sentiment is still negative, and only a small number of investors show interest in the market, yet prices begin to move upward.
Şengöz (2014) states that the first wave breaks the downtrend and initiates an uptrend, while most market participants remain bearish. This wave is characterized as speculative in nature. Poser (2003) highlights that identifying the first wave at its inception is often challenging. Market participants typically doubt whether this wave signals the beginning of a new bull market.
During the first wave, market news is generally negative, and investors remain influenced by the preceding downtrend. However, gradual increases in trading volume can be observed during this phase, accompanied by slow and steady price rises as short positions are closed. Rejnuš (2008) considers the first wave as the initial phase of a new upward cycle, often described by the market as a "bottom reversal."
From an economic perspective, the first wave reflects a period when investors receive the initial signal that prices are unlikely to fall further, prompting them to take positions. However, during this phase, the overall market volume remains relatively low, and uncertainty persists among participants.
Wave 2:According to Person (2007), the second wave typically retraces approximately 61.8% of the first wave’s movement, indicating the market's adherence to Fibonacci ratios. Person emphasizes that this ratio provides a significant clue that the market is likely to sustain the five-wave pattern. Akdemir and Yu (2009) describe the second wave as a confirmation of the first wave and a precursor to the third wave, highlighting the importance of taking positions during this phase.
Poser (2003) explains that the second wave generally retraces between 38% and 62% of the gains achieved by the first wave. During this wave, trading volume is often low, and market participants tend to perceive the continuation of the previous downtrend. However, a key rule of the second wave is that it cannot fall below the starting point of the first wave, serving as a critical guideline to prevent misidentification.
According to Tirea and Negru (2016), the second wave corrects the movement of the first wave but does not drop below its starting point, signaling potential profit opportunities for investors. Şengöz (2014) notes that the second wave is often a sharp correction but reiterates that it does not fall below the starting level of the first wave.
Rejnuš (2008) describes the second wave as generally a testing phase, emerging as a corrective movement following the first wave. During this wave, economic conditions often deteriorate, and prices sometimes return to the previous low level. However, this correction does not create a new low. Technically, this wave represents a phase where investors strengthen their positions by taking on greater risk.
Wave 3:This wave represents a phase where the overall upward momentum in the market accelerates significantly. Rejnuš (2008) notes that the third wave is typically the strongest wave in terms of both length and volume. During this period, as investor expectations for economic growth rise, prices generally surpass the previous peak, and growing optimism is observed among market participants.
Person (2007) emphasizes that the third wave is the most important wave in the Elliott Wave Theory, serving as the phase where the trend is confirmed. This wave is usually accompanied by high trading volume, the dissemination of positive news, and rapid price increases. Person also underscores the rule that the third wave can never be the shortest wave, highlighting its significance in identifying wave patterns.
Akdemir and Yu (2009) describe the third wave as the longest and most powerful wave, recommending that positions should be maintained during this phase. According to Tirea and Negru (2016), the third wave is often the longest and most significant, characterized by rapid price increases supported by positive news. Poser (2003) similarly identifies the third wave as the strongest and longest wave in the Elliott Wave Principle, during which prices rise sharply, and trading volume increases substantially.
Typically, the length of the third wave can extend up to 1.618 times the length of the first wave. In technical analysis, momentum indicators often validate the price peaks during this phase, further solidifying investor confidence in the bull market. Şengöz (2014) describes the third wave as the primary phase of market growth, noting that fears subside during this period, and upward momentum intensifies.
Wave 4:Person (2007) describes the fourth wave as a corrective wave that typically retraces part of the gains achieved by the third wave. According to Person, the fourth wave often appears in chart patterns such as triangles, pennants, or flags, and its low point can never breach the peak of the first wave.
Akdemir and Yu (2009) characterize the fourth wave as a reflection of nature, explaining that the length and strength of the third wave may cause exhaustion among market participants. According to Tirea and Negru (2016), the fourth wave corrects the movement of the third wave and provides opportunities for new investors to enter the market. Similarly, Şengöz (2014) describes the fourth wave as a corrective phase dominated by emotional anxiety.
Poser (2003) explains that the fourth wave has a corrective structure and typically retraces around 38% of the third wave. During this wave, trading volume remains low, and price movements are generally sideways. The fourth wave offers an opportunity for profit-taking for existing investors while providing new investors the chance to enter at lower levels. However, the duration of the fourth wave may be longer compared to previous impulse waves.
Rejnuš (2008) describes the fourth wave as a correction phase in which investors experience disappointment, believing the market rally may have ended. During this phase, prices typically move sideways but never return to the starting level of the first wave. Technically, the fourth wave is considered a consolidation period that retraces a portion of the previous gains.
Wave 5:According to Person (2007), the fifth wave is often the strongest in commodities such as gold, crude oil, and currencies. However, during this phase, prices begin to slow, and the market starts losing momentum. Person highlights that oscillators and indicators like MACD may show overbought/oversold signals during this wave. Poser (2003) notes that the fifth wave is typically accompanied by declining momentum and excessive optimism among investors. Trading volume during this wave may be lower than that of the third wave. The fifth wave often marks the peak of a bull market, creating a false sense of confidence among market participants that the upward trend will continue indefinitely.
Akdemir and Yu (2009) describe the fifth wave as a precursor to an impending bearish trend, noting that this wave is not as intense as the third wave. Tirea and Negru (2016) emphasize that the fifth wave should surpass the peak of the third wave but often signals an overvalued market position, indicating potential trend reversals. Şengöz (2014) characterizes the fifth wave as nostalgic, fictional, and speculative, noting that technical divergences may form during this phase.
Rejnuš (2008) describes the fifth wave as the final stage of an upward cycle. During this phase, prices typically exceed the peak of the third wave, but speculative trades and excessive optimism dominate among market participants. Although economic data and market indicators may not be as strong as in the third wave, this wave serves as a warning to investors about potential future price declines.
3.1.3 Corrective Waves
Wave A:According to Prechter and Frost (1978), the A wave emerges at the beginning of a bear market and is often perceived by investors as merely a pullback. During this phase, there is a general expectation that the market will continue its upward trend. However, technical deterioration begins to appear, laying the groundwork for the next market move.
Magazzino (2012) describes the A wave as a short-term corrective movement following a strong bull market, often interpreted by investors as a temporary retreat. Nevertheless, this wave represents the onset of a broader corrective process. Rejnuš (2008) notes that the A wave often provides the first signal that the bull market has ended. At this stage, investors may still believe the prevailing trend will continue, leading to indecisive market behavior.
During the A wave, prices begin to exhibit a downward tendency, but investors often perceive this as a temporary correction. Patel and Modi (2018) emphasize that the A wave provides an early signal of the end of the previous trend, though this signal is usually tested by the subsequent B wave. Poser (2003) states that the A wave is the initial indication of the conclusion of the previous bull market and is characterized by increased market volatility.
Wave B:According to Prechter and Frost (1978), the B wave is a deceptive wave that creates false optimism among investors. This wave is typically fully retraced by the C wave and demonstrates a technically weak structure. Magazzino (2012) describes the B wave as misleading, convincing investors that the prevailing trend will continue. During this wave, much of the decline caused by the A wave is retraced, but this optimism is usually reversed by the subsequent C wave.
Patel and Modi (2018) note that the B wave attempts to counteract the effects of the A wave and generally retraces between 38% and 138% of the A wave. However, this wave is often misleading. Poser (2003) emphasizes that the B wave is the most deceptive of all corrective waves and is typically characterized by low trading volume.
Rejnuš (2008) defines the B wave as a phase where investors are falsely convinced of the continuation of the uptrend. This wave partially retraces the losses caused by the A wave and creates temporary optimism among market participants. However, the B wave is usually associated with low trading volume, and its movement is often fully reversed by the C wave.
Wave C:Prechter and Frost (1978) describe the C wave as the most impactful phase of a bear market, where investors’ illusions about the market are entirely dispelled. During this wave, fear dominates the market, and it becomes increasingly difficult for investors to find safe opportunities.
Rejnuš (2008) considers the C wave to be the strongest and most decisive movement in the corrective process. It completes the downward trend initiated by the A wave and reflects a period dominated by fear in investor psychology. The C wave causes a significant drop in prices, representing the end of false expectations about the market.
Magazzino (2012) explains that the C wave is the strongest and most prominent phase of the corrective structure. During this wave, the market concludes the corrective process and often signals the beginning of a new trend. Patel and Modi (2018) emphasize that the C wave is the most critical of all corrective waves and is often associated with high volatility.
Poser (2003) notes that the C wave is the strongest wave in the corrective structure, with prices making a sharp and decisive move against the previous trend.
3.2 Fibonacci Number Sequence
The Fibonacci numbers were defined by the Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci (Nishu et al., 2020). In the Fibonacci sequence, each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers, and the sequence progresses as follows: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, …
1 + 1 = 2
2 + 1 = 3
3 + 2 = 5
5 + 3 = 8
8 + 5 = 13
The golden ratio, approximately equal to 1.618, is a unique value represented by the Greek letter "Phi." When any two consecutive Fibonacci numbers are divided, the resulting ratios fluctuate around the golden ratio (Nishu et al., 2020). For example:
1 / 1 = 1
2 / 1 = 2
3 / 2 = 1.5
5 / 3 = 1.666
8 / 5 = 1.6
Schneider (2016) provides a detailed explanation of the fundamental properties of the Fibonacci sequence. The golden ratio and its variations have been widely applied in technical analysis, such as through Fibonacci retracements, fans, and projections. Hoffer (1987) notes that the golden ratio (0.618034, the ratio of 1 to itself) has been considered the mathematical basis for the design of the Parthenon, the arrangement of sunflower seeds, snail shells, Greek vases, and even spiral galaxies in space. He further explains that the ancient Greeks used this ratio in designing many of their artistic and architectural works, referring to it as the "golden ratio."
The golden ratio appears across a vast range of scales, from microscopic structures like the microtubules in the brain and DNA molecules to macroscopic scales such as interplanetary distances and cycles. The golden ratio is found in semi-crystalline arrangements, light reflections on glass, the brain and nervous system, as well as in the structural designs of plants and animals. For example, when holding a book, you use two of your five limbs, each consisting of three-jointed parts, with five fingers at their ends. These fingers also consist of three-jointed segments. This 5-3-5-3 pattern strongly correlates with the Elliott Wave Principle (Prechter & Frost, 1978).
Sarma and Kanta (2018) state in their study that the golden ratio is approximately equal to 1.618. This number, known as the "phi" constant, is an irrational mathematical constant and is symbolized by the Greek letter 𝜑. In its simplest form, the golden ratio refers to a line being divided in such a way that the resulting segments produce an aesthetically pleasing fraction. Widely used in art and architecture, the golden ratio is also found in different areas of the human body and plant anatomy.
In this study, the primary focus is on Fibonacci extension levels, as the three impulse waves (1, 3, and 5) are closely associated with Fibonacci mathematics. These relationships typically involve ratios of 1.618 or 2.618, as well as their inverses, 0.618 and 0.382 (Prechter & Frost, 1978). Additionally, according to Neely (1990:5-35), Fibonacci ratios serve as a fundamental tool for understanding the dimensions, durations, and price relationships of corrective waves. These ratios are used to confirm relationships between waves and to verify the structural accuracy of corrective formations.
4. FINDINGS
The findings from the analysis of Ethereum's price movements within the framework of the Elliott Wave Theory are as follows:
4.1. Triangle Formation:
Triangles consist of a five-wave structure and are labeled with the letters A, B, C, D, and E. Triangular formations appear in fourth waves, B waves, and X waves within complex corrections. In general, there are four types of triangle formations: contracting triangle (Figure 1), expanding triangle, barrier triangle, and running triangle.
In the case of Ethereum, the chart demonstrates the presence of a contracting triangle, which will be the focus of this study. For information on other triangle types, please visit our website. Contracting triangles are the simplest type of five-wave triangles. In this formation, the A wave must be the largest, and each subsequent leg of the triangle must be smaller than the previous one (Sinclair, 2018).
According to Neely (1990), triangle formations within the Elliott Wave Theory are among the most complex yet critical structures for analyzing market movements. Triangles do not have a fixed completion time, and predicting the direction of price movement following a triangle formation is often challenging. However, once a triangle is complete, it provides valuable insights into the current market position and offers clues about the behavior of price movements after the triangle.
Triangles consist of five segments labeled a, b, c, d, and e. This rule applies regardless of whether the segments are simple or complex. Each segment represents a completed corrective wave and follows a "3-3-3-3-3" structure. This characteristic is a distinctive feature of triangles and differentiates them from other wave formations.
Neely (1990) further explains that in triangles, price movements frequently fluctuate within the same price region, often showing a tendency to either expand or contract within the boundaries of the triangle. He also notes that the upper or lower boundaries of the triangle may exhibit slight upward or downward slopes. However, Neely emphasizes that such minor deviations do not alter the overall rules governing triangle formations.
5. DISCUSSION
In this study, Ethereum's price movements were analyzed using the Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci ratios. The analyses conducted on the chart indicate that Ethereum is in the preparatory phase of its final impulse wave in its long-term price trend.
E waves signify a period in which the psychological boundaries of the market are tested. During these waves, the emotional influences on investors’ decision-making processes may become more pronounced. While the article emphasizes that the E wave serves as a structure testing the confidence of market participants, it is also necessary to analyze how this wave may vary under different market conditions. For instance, the impact of negative news could lead to a deeper correction than anticipated, potentially harming the market's long-term trend.
Upon examining the chart in Figure 2, it becomes evident that the wave structures are closely tied to Fibonacci ratios. It was observed that the higher-degree (3)rd Wave aligns with the Fibonacci 2.618 ratio of the (1)st Wave (depicted in red), while the lower-degree 3rd Wave corresponds to the Fibonacci 1.618 ratio of the 1st Wave (depicted in blue). Furthermore, it was noted that the blue-colored 2nd Wave corresponds to the Fib. 0.382 level, while the blue-colored 4th Wave aligns with the Fib. 0.618 ratio.
On the other hand, Frost’s (1979) assertion that the Dow Jones Index moves according to a natural law supports the idea that Ethereum’s wave structures exhibit a natural order consistent with Fibonacci ratios.
In the Elliott Wave Principle, the 5th wave is typically described as a phase where the market tends to reach its peak and exhibits a speculative nature. The projected target of $10,000–15,000 for Ethereum could generate excessive optimism among investors. However, this optimism, combined with a decline in momentum, may increase market risks. During this period, indicators such as market liquidity and trading volume should be closely monitored.
While the effectiveness of Fibonacci ratios in predicting price movements is widely recognized, it is essential to remember that these ratios may not always operate with the same level of accuracy under all market conditions. Sudden price movements, which are common in cryptocurrency markets, could lead to deviations from or exceedance of Fibonacci-derived targets. This limitation underscores the importance of not relying solely on these ratios when making investment decisions.
The Elliott Wave Principle is inherently subjective, and different analysts may interpret the same chart differently. To enhance the robustness of the analysis, it is recommended to complement Elliott Wave analysis with other technical tools. For instance, incorporating additional indicators like the Awesome Oscillator (AO) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) could improve the accuracy of predictions.
The cryptocurrency market possesses unique dynamics that differ from traditional markets. These differences may require certain adjustments when applying the Elliott Wave Principle. For assets like Ethereum, price movements are often influenced by speculative news, mining activities, and market manipulation. Incorporating these factors into wave analysis can make the analyses more comprehensive and realistic.
The Elliott Wave Theory serves as an essential tool for understanding the impact of investor psychology on price movements. In this study, Ethereum’s movements within triangle formations could be further explored to demonstrate how crowd psychology shapes market behavior. The effects of FOMO (fear of missing out) and panic selling on wave structures, in particular, warrant deeper analysis.
According to the chart analysis, Ethereum’s price has moved within a higher-degree triangle formation, completing the D wave at the $4,000 level. During this process, the break above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) confirmed an upward trend change. The E wave, expected to form after the D wave, is projected as a corrective phase preceding the 5th wave (Figure 7).
Following the D wave, E waves are often perceived by investors as the beginning of a strong bearish trend in the market. These waves frequently coincide with news that supports a downward movement, fostering a strong belief among market participants in a sell-off. Additionally, E waves typically represent a turning point in the market. As a termination wave, E waves are associated with intense emotional reactions, similar to those observed in fifth waves, from the perspective of market psychology. During this stage, the risk of investors misinterpreting market conditions and making flawed decisions is significantly high (Prechter & Frost, 1978).
6. CONCLUSION
This study has analyzed Ethereum's price movements within the framework of the Elliott Wave Theory, demonstrating the theory's applicability to cryptocurrency markets. The integration of the Elliott Wave Principle with technical tools such as Fibonacci ratios and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) has proven to provide investors with robust guidance in understanding market movements and making informed decisions.
The E wave is expected to form either in a zigzag structure or as a triangular model. It is anticipated that Ethereum’s price retracement from the D wave could extend to the 200-day exponential moving average. Additionally, E waves frequently coincide with news that supports bearish sentiment, creating a strong belief in a sell-off among market participants (Prechter & Frost, 1978).
Moreover, the comprehensive framework provided by the Elliott Wave Theory offers a significant advantage in understanding market trends by analyzing the behavior of market participants. The mathematical precision provided by Fibonacci ratios and the trend-defining characteristic of the EMA have created a powerful synergy in forecasting Ethereum's future price targets.
The success of the Elliott Wave Principle in predicting market behavior aligns with Frost’s (1979) observations that the Dow Jones Index moves according to natural laws. The findings of this study, derived from Ethereum’s price movement analysis, support Frost’s argument and reinforce the applicability of the theory to the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Ethereum. This article highlights the significance of Fibonacci levels and EMA in understanding market trends, providing investors with a valuable guide for identifying accurate entry and exit points. However, the reliance of the Elliott Wave Theory on analysts’ interpretations may introduce subjectivity and lead to varying outcomes. Therefore, analyses based on the Elliott Wave Principle should incorporate additional technical tools.
In conclusion, this study demonstrates that the Elliott Wave Theory is a valuable tool for understanding the applicability and potential benefits of the theory in cryptocurrency markets. However, it should be noted that the theory and its technical indicators are subject to interpretation and may vary with different perspectives. Investors should adopt a multi-faceted approach, supported by other technical tools, and prioritize risk management alongside these analyses.
The findings confirm that the Elliott Wave Principle can play a strategic role as a guide in highly volatile cryptocurrencies like Ethereum. For further insights into the E wave and Ethereum, follow our website.
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