EURUSD Elliott Wave: Triangle Wave 4 Points to 1.11

This correction has kept us waiting longer than I expected. That is what triangles do. They drag on, they test your patience, and they make people see reversals that are not there.

I still count the EURUSD triangle as wave ④. One more leg down remains.

Why is the EURUSD triangle wave 4 and not a reversal?

Look at the structure on the 4h chart. The decline from the ② high came in a clean sequence: ① at the lower left, ② bounce, then ③ with the strongest drop, then a sideways grind labeled ④. Wave ④ is a contracting triangle, bounded by a falling upper trendline and a rising lower trendline, with a sharp wave ③ drop right before it.

That sequence matters. Triangles in the fourth position are continuation patterns. They pause the trend, they do not end it.

The same rhythm shows up on the smaller degree too. Price already did this earlier in the move, with a smaller triangle in (4) before the next sell-off. Same behavior, different scale.

What does the lower trendline tell us right now?

Price is back at the lower trendline after several touches on the way. Each touch has held so far, and each bounce has been weaker than the one before. That is how a contracting triangle behaves as it runs out of room.

The upper boundary sits well above current price near the 0.236 and 0.382 retracement area of the previous drop. The rejections from that zone tell you who still controls the market.

The pattern does not need to be perfect. It needs the lower line to give way.

Where does EURUSD wave 5 point if the triangle breaks?

A break below the lower trendline points to 1.11 and a bit lower to finish wave ⑤. The arrow on the chart ends just under 1.1100, and that is the area I am watching for the completion of this leg.

Wave ⑤ following a triangle often arrives as a quick thrust, because the triangle has already done the work of releasing the sideways energy. Triangle breakouts tend to move fast once the line goes.

The larger picture matters too. This wave ⑤ would also complete the larger third-degree count that started at the ii high. A fifth wave is the final push of the move, so I treat the area near 1.11 as a target zone for the end of this decline, not as a place to expect the selling to continue forever.

What would change the EURUSD count?

A triangle that breaks out the wrong way is a different pattern. If price leaves the formation to the upside instead and holds above the upper trendline, the wave ④ triangle idea loses its footing and the whole count needs rethinking.

Until that happens, the lower trendline is the line that decides things. Below it, the path leads toward 1.11. Above the upper boundary, the bearish count is in trouble.

One leg to go. The chart will tell us when it starts.