XAUUSD Elliott Wave: Gold Rejects 4,228, Eyes 4,000

Gold bounced into 4,228 on Friday and turned back down. That level is the invalidation on both of my counts, so the rejection matters.

A bounce that stops exactly at the level that would prove me wrong is information. It does not prove me right. But it keeps both scenarios alive, and both of them point the same way.

What are the two Elliott Wave counts on XAUUSD?

Same two counts as last week. They share a direction and differ only in where gold sits in the larger structure.

The first count has the current bounce as wave 4, with wave 5 still to come. The second count has the bounce as the b wave of the final Y leg of a correction, with the c wave to follow.

Either way it points down. I'm not forcing a choice between them because the chart does not require one yet.

Where does the XAUUSD structure stand on the chart?

The chart shows a (1) top with a completed wave 5, then a corrective decline labeled W-X-Y. The W leg sold off hard from the highs. The X wave built as a contracting triangle, the (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e) sequence squeezing between two converging lines. Price broke down out of that triangle, and the break is where the Y leg starts.

Inside Y, the (a) wave found a low near 4,120. The (b) wave is the bounce that topped at 4,228 on Friday. If this is the b wave, the c wave comes next, and c waves in a correction like this tend to travel.

That is the logic behind the 4,000 area. The c wave projects into a zone I marked last week, and the 0.786 and 0.886 retracement lines on the chart sit on the way down to it.

Why does 4,228 matter so much?

Because it is the invalidation on both counts. A b wave cannot exceed the start of the a wave in this structure, and wave 4 cannot overlap into the territory that would break the impulse rules. Above 4,228, both labelings fail.

That is what makes it a good level. It is not a vague zone. It is one price, and it tells me when to stop trusting the map.

A close back above 4,228 and I'm wrong on both. I'm not going to argue with the market after that.

What is the downside target for gold?

The area I marked last week is around 4,000. Both counts end there: wave 5 in the first case, the c wave in the second.

What happens when price gets there is what I'm watching. A move into that zone does not automatically mean a reversal. It means the structure I'm tracking has reached its projected completion area, and that is where I want to see how price behaves.

The path matters as much as the destination. Gold has to hold below 4,228 for the plan to stay valid.

Key Takeaways

•XAUUSD rejected 4,228 on Friday, the level that invalidates both of Cetin's current Elliott Wave counts.

•In the first XAUUSD count, the bounce is wave 4 with wave 5 still to come; in the second, it is the b wave of the final Y leg of a correction.

•Both XAUUSD counts point lower and end around 4,000, the area marked a week earlier.

•A close back above 4,228 invalidates both XAUUSD counts at once, which makes it a clean, single-price reference.

Frequently Asked Questions

What invalidates the bearish XAUUSD Elliott Wave count?

A close back above 4,228 invalidates both counts. That price is the top of Friday's bounce, and it is the invalidation for wave 4 and for the b wave of the Y leg alike.

Where is gold heading according to this Elliott Wave count?

Both counts end around 4,000. In one count wave 5 completes there, in the other the c wave of the final Y leg does.

Is the current gold bounce wave 4 or a b wave?

Two counts are active and the chart does not force a choice yet. Wave 4 and the b wave of Y both predict the same direction, down toward 4,000, so the distinction matters less than the 4,228 invalidation.