XAUUSD Elliott Wave: Why Gold's Sub-4,000 Floor Fails

Gold is back at the yellow box just under 4,000, the floor that has held since the record high at 5,598.75. Plenty of traders see a bottom here. My count says otherwise.

The box has been tested again and again, and every bounce from it makes the bottom call look smarter. That is exactly how a long correction keeps traders on the wrong side. Support that holds is not the same as a trend that has ended.

Where is XAUUSD in the Elliott Wave count?

Wave IV has been one long correction since the 5,598.75 high. It is a complex W-X-Y-X-Z structure, and we are now inside the final leg, wave Z.

On the chart, wave III topped at 5,598.75. Everything since then is a sideways-to-lower grind, not a new impulse. Corrections like this are slow, they overlap, and they wear out both bulls and bears.

That is why the count matters more than the price floor. A floor tells you where buyers showed up before. The count tells you what the market still owes.

Why gold is not bottoming at the sub-4,000 box

Inside wave Z, wave A is still falling and its fifth wave is not done. The sub-wave labels on the daily chart show the decline sitting at wave (3) with the final (5) still ahead.

That means the drop from the recent bounce is unfinished business. A fifth wave has to complete before wave A can end, and price has not delivered it yet.

I expect wave A to reach 3,668.57 and 3,555.73. The first is the 1.0 extension and the second is the 1.272 extension of the move. Those are the levels that matter for this leg, not the round number above.

What happens after wave A: the B bounce and the C leg

Losing the box will not finish the move. Wave B should bounce back to the same floor, now from below. The yellow box flips from support to resistance, and that is where sellers get another shot.

Then wave C drives gold to new lows and completes wave IV. On the chart, that final leg points toward the lower channel line near the 3,000 to 3,200 zone, labeled wave (Z) and IV.

A wave B bounce is where most traders get trapped. It looks like a recovery, it feels like relief, and it is only a pause inside a larger correction. If you want the full logic of how these corrective legs work, the Elliott Wave commodities guide covers gold, silver and oil in detail.

Why wave IV matters for the bigger gold picture

Wave IV is a correction inside a larger bullish structure that peaked at wave III. Once wave IV completes, the market is positioned for wave V. But that comes after the correction is done, not before.

Calling the bottom early is the most common mistake in a complex correction. The structure needs to finish all of its legs first. Until wave C completes, the bottom is a guess, not a count.

For the full framework behind these labels, see the Elliott Wave theory guide. For the current live view on this instrument, check the XAUUSD analysis page.

This is analysis, not a signal. The point is to know what the structure says before the market proves it.