NAS100 Elliott Wave: Why the Dip Isn't Ready Yet

Yesterday it was SPX500. Today NAS100 is telling the same story.

Wave 5 topped out on the 4-hour chart, closing a five-wave advance that ran from the wave 4 low near 28,600 through the ⑤ peak above 30,200. Since then price has been carving an ABC correction, and wave C is still pushing lower. We're not calling the bottom just because the chart looks "cheap."

Where is NAS100 in its Elliott Wave structure right now?

The chart shows a clean five-wave impulse into the top: waves 1 through 5 stacked cleanly, with wave ④ inside wave 5 giving the last pause before the final high. That high marks the end of the larger (2) wave's upward leg and the start of the ABC pullback.

Wave A dropped hard toward 28,600. Wave B corrected back up toward the descending channel's upper line near 29,600. Now wave C is unfolding lower, and inside wave C we're tracking a smaller five-wave sequence: ①, ②, ③, and now the market is working toward ④ and the final ⑤.

Why does the 0.5-0.618 Fib zone matter here?

We're watching the 0.5-0.618 Fib retracement zone marked on the chart between roughly 28,600 and 28,400. Wave 4 of C should find its footing there before the final wave 5 of C wraps up the correction.

This isn't an arbitrary band. It's the zone where a fourth wave inside the final leg down typically stalls before the fifth wave pushes to the actual low. If price reacts inside that zone the way the drawn projection on the chart suggests, bouncing into a small ④ before one more leg down into ⑤, the larger uptrend stays intact.

Does this mean NAS100 is about to reverse?

No. This isn't a reversal warning. It's a reset before continuation.

The blue arrow on the chart projects a low forming near the lower channel line around 28,200-28,400, followed by a sharp move back up toward and beyond 30,000. That's the expected shape once wave C and its internal wave 5 finish printing. Until that happens, every bounce inside the correction is still part of the correction, not proof the correction is over.

What's the actual lesson from SPX500 and NAS100 both showing this?

Two indices, same structure, same lesson: let the correction finish before you even think about buying the dip. A chart looking oversold after a fast drop is not analysis, it's a feeling. The wave count is what tells you whether the drop is wave C of a correction or something bigger.

Right now both indices are pointing to the same answer. The correction needs its final wave 5 low before the larger uptrend has room to resume.

Key Takeaways

•NAS100 completed a wave 5 top and is now correcting inside an ABC structure on the 4-hour chart.

•Wave C of the NAS100 correction is still active, with an internal wave 4 expected to hold in the 0.5 to 0.618 Fib retracement zone.

•A reaction inside the 28,400-28,600 zone would keep the larger NAS100 uptrend intact rather than signal a reversal.

•The projected path has wave 5 of C completing near the lower channel boundary before a move back above 30,000.

•SPX500 and NAS100 are showing the same corrective pattern, reinforcing that the correction should finish before dip buying makes sense.

Frequently Asked Questions

What would invalidate the NAS100 wave C count?

A break and sustained close below the wave A low, or a failure of price to react anywhere near the 0.5-0.618 Fib zone during wave 4 of C, would call the current count into question.

Is NAS100 in a bear market after topping at wave 5?

No. The current move is being treated as an ABC correction within a larger uptrend, not the start of a bear trend. The larger structure stays intact as long as the correction resolves as expected.

Why not buy the NAS100 dip now if it looks cheap?

Price looking cheap after a fast drop doesn't confirm the correction is finished. Wave C still needs to complete its own internal five waves, including a wave 4 pause and a final wave 5 low, before the setup is worth acting on.