How We Analyze Markets
A systematic, rule-based approach to Elliott Wave analysis. No guesswork, no discretionary bias — just structured wave counting with verified outcomes.
Wave Identification
Every analysis begins with identifying the current wave position on the weekly timeframe. We determine which wave of the larger degree cycle the market is in, establishing the macro context before zooming into shorter timeframes.
We follow Ralph Nelson Elliott's original rules strictly: Wave 2 never retraces beyond the start of Wave 1, Wave 3 is never the shortest impulse wave, and Wave 4 never overlaps Wave 1 in an impulse. When a count violates a rule, it is discarded immediately.
Multi-Timeframe Confluence
After establishing the weekly wave position, we analyze the daily and 4-hour charts to identify the subdivisions. The three timeframes must align — a bullish weekly count should show bullish daily and 4-hour structures.
This top-down approach prevents the common mistake of trading a corrective bounce as an impulse. If the weekly shows a developing Wave C, the daily might show an impulse — but the larger context tells us this impulse will eventually fail.
Fibonacci Price Targets
Once the wave position is established, Fibonacci ratios provide precise price targets. Wave 3 typically extends to 161.8% of Wave 1. Wave 2 commonly retraces to 61.8%. These are not arbitrary — they are derived from the mathematical relationships within the wave structure.
We look for clusters where multiple Fibonacci levels from different degree waves converge. These confluence zones are where the highest-probability reversals occur.
Invalidation Levels
Every wave count has a clear invalidation level — the price at which the count is proven wrong. We mark these on every analysis. If Wave 4 overlaps Wave 1, the impulse count is invalid. If Wave 2 retraces beyond Wave 1's start, the count is invalid.
This is what makes Elliott Wave uniquely valuable for risk management: your stop loss is not arbitrary but mathematically defined by the wave structure.
Outcome Tracking
We track every analysis outcome on our public scorecard. When a target is hit, it is recorded as HIT. When an invalidation level is reached, it is recorded as INVALIDATED. This transparency allows users to verify our methodology's effectiveness with real data.
Our scorecard is not cherry-picked — every published analysis is tracked until resolution. This level of accountability is rare in the wave analysis space.
See Our Methodology in Action
Browse our latest analyses, verify our track record on the public scorecard, or try the platform yourself.