XAUUSD Elliott Wave: Wave 5 Targets $4,000 After CPI

Gold is sliding again after today's CPI. I think wave ④ is done, a flat (A)-(B)-(C) that failed to hold the top of its channel, and I still expect wave ⑤ to extend toward $4,000.

That's where I'll be watching for a turn. Not before.

Is XAUUSD wave 4 finished?

I think so. The correction that followed wave ③ at the early October lows traced a flat: (A), then (B) with its internal A-B-C, then (C) pushing back toward the top of the channel.

Price failed to hold that channel top. The drop after the CPI print is the first real sign that sellers are back in control, and it fits the idea that wave ④ ended at the (C) high.

A flat is a sideways, overlapping mess by design. That is exactly what the chart shows between wave ③ and the recent high. It looks like a pause inside a larger decline, not a reversal.

Where does the Elliott Wave count say gold is heading?

Wave ⑤ is the final leg of the move down from the wave (X) high. My expectation is that it extends toward $4,000.

That level is also where the blue box sits on the chart. It is well below the end of wave ③ and the earlier lows, so a move there would clear the previous swing points and not just tag them.

The move off the top is labeled as a larger structure: wave A, a B-wave bounce that stalled between the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement zone, then the sell-off that followed. Wave ⑤ is the last piece of the larger decline. See the impulse wave entry for how a fifth wave behaves.

What would make me consider a long in gold?

Not a single bounce into the box. That is the mistake most traders make: price touches a level, they buy, and they call it analysis.

I want to see an impulse up from the $4,000 area, followed by a small correction. Only then does the idea of a turn have any structure behind it.

Until that sequence prints, the box is a place to watch, not a place to act. That discipline is the difference between reading waves and guessing at bottoms.

Why the CPI reaction matters for the count

CPI gave the move a catalyst, but the count does not depend on the news. The structure was already pointing lower once the flat failed at its channel top.

News moves price. Waves tell you what the move means in context. If you want the wider picture for metals, the Elliott Wave commodities guide covers how I approach gold, silver and oil.

Wave ⑤ is the one I'm tracking. The $4,000 box is where I'll look for the turn.

Key Takeaways

•XAUUSD wave ④ looks complete as a flat (A)-(B)-(C) that failed to hold the top of its channel.

•The Elliott Wave count for XAUUSD calls for wave ⑤ to extend toward $4,000, where the blue box sits on the chart.

•The $4,000 box in gold sits well below the end of wave ③ and the earlier lows, so the target clears prior swing points.

•A long in XAUUSD is not on the table until an impulse up from the box is followed by a small correction.

•Gold's post-CPI drop fits the count, but the structure was already pointing lower before the news.

Frequently Asked Questions

Where is gold heading according to Elliott Wave?

The count calls for wave ⑤ to extend toward $4,000, where the blue box sits on the chart. That level is well below wave ③ and the earlier lows.

Is XAUUSD wave 4 complete?

I think so. Wave ④ looks like a flat (A)-(B)-(C) that failed to hold the top of its channel, and the sell-off after CPI supports that read.

When would I consider a long on gold?

Only after an impulse up from the $4,000 area followed by a small correction. A single bounce into the box is not enough.