#AUDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis

#AUDUSD 🇦🇺🇺🇸

A bounce is not a reversal. Knowing the difference is the whole game.

The structure here is bearish. Wave 1 completed at the lows, Wave 2 corrected up to 0.7200, and since then price has been carving out a 5-wave impulse to the downside. Waves (1) through (5) of wave (i) are visible on the H4. That internal count is nearly done.

What comes next is where unprepared traders get hurt.

We're expecting a corrective bounce into the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib zone (0.70388 - 0.70505). That's wave (ii) retracing the drop. It will look and feel like a reversal. Price goes up, traders who missed the move think it's safe to buy, they enter long, and then wave (iii) hits them.

This is how amateur accounts get damaged. They confuse a pullback with a trend change.

Invalidation sits at 0.70883. A close above that level cancels the bearish count entirely.

As long as price stays below that level, every bounce into the 0.5 - 0.618 zone is a sell opportunity, not a buy signal.

The trend is down. The correction gives us a better entry. We wait for it.