XAGUSD Elliott Wave: Silver Wave iii Targets $47.30

Silver is now below both $52.96 and $49.46, the levels we tracked in our 23 October and 29 October updates. The last bounce was brief and changed nothing.

The decline from the wave ii high is still wave iii. Price keeps making lower lows, and the bounces keep failing.

Where is XAGUSD heading in wave iii?

The next target is the 2.0 extension at $47.30. If wave iii stretches, the 2.618 extension sits at $43.81.

The chart shows a yellow zone between those two levels. That is where I expect the move to mature. Trends that run this hard tend to travel further than most traders are willing to hold a short, which is exactly why they pay.

What is wave 5 of iii and why does it matter?

On the 4h chart, the circled labels 1 through 4 are already in place inside wave iii. The final push is circled 5, and I'm watching for it inside the $47.30 to $43.81 zone.

This matters because wave 5 is the last leg of the third wave. It is where a strong decline usually runs out of fuel. Knowing that before price arrives is the whole point of counting.

The impulse wave structure has rules, and the wave iii label fits them so far. Wave iii is not the shortest wave, and wave iv has not entered the territory of wave i.

What comes after the wave iii low?

After wave iii completes, I expect a wave iv bounce, then another leg lower. On the chart, the blue arrows show two paths for that bounce. One is a quick rebound that retraces part of the drop. The other is a deeper and slower bounce toward the $50 area before sellers return.

That bounce will feel like a reversal to many traders. It is not. Wave iv is a correction inside a bigger decline, and the larger count stays bearish until it is invalidated.

What invalidates the silver count?

The count holds as long as price stays below $58.61, the wave ii high. That level is printed on the chart as the invalidation line.

A break above $58.61 means this wave iii idea is wrong and the structure needs a fresh look. Until then, every rally is just a rally inside the decline. Use the invalidation level as the line that tells you when the analysis has failed, not as a place to hope.

For the bigger picture on metals and energy, see the Elliott Wave commodities guide. For the full premium breakdown, the live XAGUSD analysis has the current count.

Key Takeaways

•XAGUSD is trading below $52.96 and $49.46, the two levels tracked in the 23 October and 29 October updates.

•The Elliott Wave count for XAGUSD still treats the decline as wave iii, with the next target at the 2.0 extension, $47.30.

•If wave iii stretches, the 2.618 extension for XAGUSD sits at $43.81, and the zone between $47.30 and $43.81 is where wave 5 of iii is expected.

•After wave iii completes, silver is expected to bounce in wave iv, then turn lower again.

•The bearish silver count stays valid as long as price holds below $58.61, the wave ii high.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the next target for silver in this Elliott Wave count?

The next target is the 2.0 extension at $47.30. If wave iii stretches, the 2.618 extension at $43.81 becomes the lower target, and wave 5 of iii is expected inside that zone.

What invalidates the bearish XAGUSD Elliott Wave count?

A move above $58.61, the wave ii high, invalidates the count. As long as silver stays below that level, the decline is treated as wave iii of a larger bearish structure.

What happens after wave iii ends in silver?

A wave iv bounce is expected first, followed by another leg lower. The bounce is a correction inside the decline, not a trend change.