BTCUSDT Elliott Wave: Wave 4 Targets 77,500 Next

Wave 4 is dragging this out longer than I'd like. That's usually how fourth waves behave, and this one is no exception.

The structure on the 4-hour BTCUSDT chart is a complex correction. The (w) and (x) are done, and the current drop is the c of (y). That matters because it tells you what kind of move you're dealing with: a corrective leg that still has work to do, not a finished correction waiting for a bounce.

Where is BTCUSDT in the Elliott Wave count right now?

BTCUSDT topped wave 3 near the high labeled (v) and has been correcting since. The correction is a double-three style structure: (w), then (x), then the final (y) leg. Both (w) and (x) are complete on my count.

Inside the c of (y), the first leg ① is already in, followed by a small ② bounce that failed below the (x) high. The sharp drop since then is the start of ③, and it has already cut through the 2.618 extension at 81,700.

This is a fourth wave. It is supposed to be annoying, sideways, and longer than traders want. Wave 4 exists to shake people out before wave 5.

What are the next BTCUSDT price targets inside wave 4?

Next stop is the 3.618 at 79,400. That level finishes ③ on my count.

After that I expect one bounce for ④, then a last push lower in ⑤. The target for ⑤ is the 0.382 near 77,500. That is where I think wave 4 ends and wave 5 starts.

The path is simple to state: lower to 79,400, bounce, then lower again to 77,500. If you want the wider context on how extensions and retracements frame these targets, the Fibonacci retracement entry covers the tools I use on every chart.

What invalidates the deeper wave 4 on BTCUSDT?

If price gets back above 87,500, the deeper wave 4 is off the table and wave 5 is already running.

That is the line. Above 87,500 the c of (y) idea is wrong, and I stop expecting 77,500. Below it, the downside count stays valid. No guessing, no hoping. A count that cannot be proven wrong is not analysis. For how I define these levels in general, see invalidation level.

Why does the end of wave 4 matter?

Wave 4 ending near 77,500 would set up wave 5 of the larger impulse wave that started from the (iv) low. Most traders get shaken out in the fourth wave because it feels like the trend is over. It usually isn't.

The point is not to catch the exact low. The point is to know which part of the structure you are in, and what price would prove you wrong.

For more on how I apply the same method to Bitcoin and other digital assets, read the Elliott Wave crypto guide, or check the live BTCUSDT analysis.