DXY Elliott Wave: WXY Correction Done, Dollar Set to Turn

We've been saying it for weeks. The dollar isn't done.

The DXY chart shows wave (ii) unfolding as a WXY correction, and that correction is complete. The descending resistance line that capped price since wave (i) has broken. That break is not decoration, it is confirmation that wave 2 of the larger degree has finished its work.

Invalidation sits at 100.353, right below the wave (ii) low. Hold that level and the next leg higher in DXY is already starting.

What does the WXY structure on DXY actually show?

Look at the internal labels. Wave (i) topped, then the correction ran through a zigzag W, a triangle-like X wave, and a final Y leg down into the (ii) low. Inside that Y wave you can see A, B, C dropping into a small ending diagonal near the 100.353 zone. That is a textbook three-wave WXY combination, not a fresh impulsive decline. Combinations like this exist to eat time and chop up sentiment, not to build new downtrends.

The descending trendline connecting the (i) high through the B and X wave highs held for weeks. Price finally closed above it. A trendline break after a multi-leg corrective structure is one of the cleaner signals in Elliott Wave work, because it shows the corrective pattern has exhausted its supply of sellers.

Why does 100.353 matter so much right now?

That number is the invalidation level for the entire bullish count. It sits just under the low of wave (ii), below the final C wave of the Y leg. As long as DXY stays above it, the larger degree wave count stays intact: wave 1 up, wave 2 down as WXY, and now wave 3 beginning.

A break below 100.353 would not just dent the bullish case, it would erase the reason for calling wave (ii) finished at all. That is why this level gets called out directly on the chart instead of being buried in commentary. Traders watching DXY don't need a vague zone, they need the price that breaks the whole idea.

What does a DXY wave 3 mean for the rest of the board?

One chart, one direction. The whole board follows.

If DXY is starting a third wave higher, the dollar side of every major pair matters. EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and gold all sit on the other side of dollar strength, so pressure lower is the expectation there. USDJPY, USDCAD and USDCHF have the dollar working for them instead of against them, so wind at their back is the read.

This is not eight separate stories. It is one dollar structure that dictates direction across correlated pairs and gold at the same time.

The bigger picture

The same view has been repeated here for weeks, and the market keeps confirming it rather than contradicting it. A finished WXY, a broken trendline, and a clean invalidation level at 100.353 make the wave 3 case straightforward to track. This is what a wave count is supposed to give a trader: a level to watch and a direction to expect, one step ahead instead of one step behind.