EURUSD Elliott Wave: 1.16141 Is the Line in the Sand

Elliott Wave has three rules you can't break. One says Wave 4 can't overlap Wave 1's territory. That's the line in the sand on EURUSD right now.

Invalidation sits at 1.16141, the top of Wave (i)/⑤. Price is carving out a WXY correction for Wave (iv), with the c leg currently testing the 0.382 to 0.5 retracement zone, between 1.16561 and 1.16391.

As long as that invalidation holds, this is a correction doing its job. It's testing patience, not the trend.

Why does 1.16141 matter so much for this count?

That price is not arbitrary. It marks the top of Wave (i)/⑤, and under the Elliott Wave rulebook, Wave 4 is forbidden from trading into Wave 1's price territory in an impulse.

If EURUSD closes below 1.16141, the current bullish structure from Wave (y) is broken. The count would need a full rethink, and the five wave advance labeled ①through ⑤ into ③ and (iii) would no longer hold up as drawn.

Until that level gives way, the pullback playing out since the (iii) high is corrective behavior, not a trend change.

What does the WXY structure in Wave (iv) tell traders?

The chart shows a W leg down from the (iii) high, a b wave correction higher, and now a c leg pushing into the 0.382 to 0.5 retracement of the prior move, marked at 1.16561 and 1.16391.

This three wave, three wave, three wave structure is typical of a WXY correction, a common way for Wave 4 pullbacks to unfold when the market wants more time and price than a simple zigzag.

The red descending trend line capping the b wave rally is the line to watch next. A break above it would suggest the c leg, and Wave (iv) with it, has finished its work.

What happens if EURUSD breaks the red trend line?

A clean break above the descending red trend line confirms the corrective phase is done. That opens the door for Wave (v) to resume the advance, extending the impulse that began at the (y) low near 1.15000 and has already produced waves ① through ④ inside Wave (iii).

The blue projected path on the chart shows that continuation targeting fresh highs above 1.17400, consistent with a Wave (v) extension following a completed WXY Wave (iv).

What invalidates the bullish EURUSD count?

A daily or sustained close below 1.16141 invalidates the current wave count. That level is the top of Wave (i)/⑤, and any overlap there breaks the Wave 4 overlap rule that this entire structure depends on.

Below 1.16141, the whole count needs a rethink. Until then, we respect the level and let price do the talking.