EURUSD Elliott Wave: Wave 5 Toward 1.105 to End (B)

Following up on last week: EURUSD is still working through the final leg of a larger decline. From the August high, waves i, ii, iii and iv are done. Wave v is still running, and inside it price is in ④ with ⑤ still to come.

The interesting part is how clean the fourth wave behaved.

Where is EURUSD in the Elliott Wave count right now?

The August high started a five-wave structure down. Waves i through iv are complete on the 4h chart. Wave v is the last leg, and it has its own five-wave subdivision: ① and ③ are in, ④ was the bounce, and ⑤ is the one still missing.

This whole decline is the (c) leg of Y, which sits inside a larger wave (B). The labels on the chart carry that hierarchy all the way up to (B). Counting from the top matters here, because the position inside wave v tells you what comes next.

Why did the wave ④ bounce stop at 1.128?

The ④ bounce stalled at the 0.382 retrace near 1.128. That's where a shallow fourth wave usually stops.

In an impulse, a strong third wave tends to be followed by a shallow fourth. Price retraced only a small portion of ③ before sellers took over again. The 0.236 level sits just below, and the bounce never came close to the 0.618 area that marked the earlier wave ② reaction. A shallow ④ after a sharp ③ is normal behavior, not a sign of weakness in the count.

See Fibonacci retracement for how these ratios are used to gauge wave depth.

Where should wave ⑤ take EURUSD?

Wave ⑤ should take price down to the lower channel line around 1.105. That level also sits inside last week's 1.113-1.09 zone, so the target is not new. It's the same area, now with a more precise endpoint.

The channel does the work here. The upper line has contained every bounce since the August high, and the lower line is where a fifth wave of this size would logically finish. I expect wave (B) to end there, and that's where I'll start looking for the turn.

Note the wording: looking for the turn, not calling it in advance. A completed five-wave decline into a channel boundary is where a corrective wave B low gets confirmed, not guessed.

What invalidates this EURUSD count?

If price pushes back above 1.128, the last leg is already in and I was wrong on the extension.

That is the invalidation level. A move above 1.128 would mean wave ④ was not a pause but the start of something else, and the idea of a final fifth wave down to 1.105 would be wrong. No stretching the count, no moving the line afterward.

For how the same logic applies across majors, see the Elliott Wave forex guide and the live EURUSD analysis.

The structure is simple: one wave left, one level that proves me wrong, and one zone where the next decision gets made.