EURUSD Elliott Wave: Bounce Holds Above 1.11128

On Thursday I laid out the EURUSD setup: a pullback that holds above 1.11128, then a break above the bounce high. The pullback showed up this morning.

Price dipped to the 0.5 level at 1.1191 and buyers stepped in right away. That is exactly the kind of reaction you want to see after a first impulsive bounce off a major low.

Where does the EURUSD pullback stop?

The 0.5 retracement at 1.1191 already produced a reaction. Price could still slip to 1.1173, the 0.618 level, without changing the count.

That matters. Most traders treat every dip as a verdict. A dip inside a valid retracement zone is not a verdict, it is part of the structure.

The bounce off the low is the first leg up. A pullback into the 0.5 to 0.618 zone is normal behavior for the next leg to build on.

What does the 1.11128 low mean for the count?

The 1.11128 low marks the end of wave (c) of Y in the (B) correction. On the chart, that decline is a five-wave structure inside wave (c), finishing with the final leg lower in wave 5 and the very last extension marked v.

The last part of that move formed a contracting wedge, a triangle-like squeeze with the lows pressing down into 1.11128. Then price snapped back out of it. That is how a terminal pattern usually ends: the final low gets sold hard, and the reversal starts from there.

If EURUSD trades below 1.11128, the count changes. That level is the invalidation level, and there is no reason to argue with it.

What are the EURUSD targets from here?

I expect the rise to continue, first toward 1.1329, then 1.1426. The 1.1329 level is where wave 1 equals the first leg of the advance. The 1.1426 level is the 1.618 extension.

The chart also shows 1.1582 at the 2.618 extension, but that is a stretch target and only relevant if the move accelerates well beyond the first two.

Targets are not promises. They are areas where the structure says the next reaction is likely.

What confirms the bullish EURUSD count?

I'm waiting for a break above last week's high to confirm it. Until then, the pullback is a pullback and the count is a working hypothesis.

The order of events matters: a corrective dip that holds above 1.11128, then a break above the bounce high. The first part is done. The second part is what separates a real turn from a bounce that fades.

If you want to see how this fits into the bigger picture, the Elliott Wave forex guide covers how correction structures like the (B) wave behave in currency pairs.