GBPJPY Elliott Wave: Wave (5) Targets 207.45 and 205.00

That correction took its time. Friday finally got things moving again.

In Wednesday's update we flagged another decline toward 207.45 and 205.00. Price has now hit 208.00 and closed the week near 208.30. We're closing in on that first target.

A small bounce could show up first, but we're still leaning toward another leg lower after that. A break above 210.147 would put this short-term count back on the table.

Why did wave (4) take so long to resolve

Wave (4) on GBPJPY wasn't a clean pullback. It played out as a flat correction, which by nature chews up time and tests patience.

Price tagged the 0.382 retracement at 210.904 before rejecting hard. That rejection carried straight through the 0.236 level at 209.451 and kept going. Anyone expecting a quick, sharp wave (4) got the opposite: a grinding, sideways structure that only released downside pressure once it was fully done.

What does the wave (5) decline look like now

Wave (5) is behaving exactly the way wave (5)s tend to. Once wave (4) finished its business near 210.904, sellers took over and pushed price down through 209.451 without much hesitation.

The chart shows price already reaching 208.00 and closing the week near 208.30. That puts the pair within close range of the first downside target at 207.45. The broader path drawn on the chart extends further, toward 205.00, which lines up with where wave (5) of this decline is expected to complete.

What would invalidate the bearish GBPJPY count

The invalidation level here is 210.147. As long as GBPJPY stays under that price, the short-term bearish structure remains intact and wave (5) stays the working count.

A break above 210.147 changes the picture. That would put the short-term bearish count back on the table for reassessment rather than confirm continuation lower. A small bounce before the next leg down wouldn't break this structure, since corrections inside an unfinished wave (5) are normal and expected.

What's next for GBPJPY

The first target at 207.45 is close. The bigger target sits at 205.00, matching the trajectory drawn from the current price action.

We'll keep this one updated with levels as the next waves develop, tracked in more detail on the premium GBPJPY page.

Key Takeaways

•GBPJPY is approaching the first downside target at 207.45 after closing the week near 208.30.

•The Elliott Wave count on GBPJPY sees wave (5) declining toward 205.00 once the current leg completes.

•Wave (4) on GBPJPY formed a flat correction, rejecting the 0.382 fib at 210.904 before falling through 209.451.

•A break above 210.147 would invalidate the current short-term bearish GBPJPY structure.

•A small bounce may appear before GBPJPY resumes its move lower toward the wave (5) target.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the next target for GBPJPY under this Elliott Wave count?

The immediate target is 207.45, with a further target at 205.00 where wave (5) is expected to complete.

What invalidates the bearish GBPJPY Elliott Wave count?

A break above 210.147 would invalidate the short-term bearish structure and put the count back up for review.

Why did wave (4) on GBPJPY take so long to complete?

Wave (4) formed as a flat correction, which typically consumes more time than a simple zigzag before resolving. It tagged the 0.382 retracement at 210.904 before rejecting sharply lower.