USDJPY Elliott Wave: Wave C Targets 161.157 to 161.614

Still looking for higher prices in USDJPY wave C. The 4h chart shows price grinding through wave (iii) of (5), and I want it into 161.157 to 161.614.

That zone is where the 2.618 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions line up. When two projections from different degrees land in the same area, I pay attention.

Where is USDJPY in the Elliott Wave count?

The bigger picture is a corrective advance. Wave A topped out near the middle of the range, wave B carved out a double-combination low labeled (w)-(x)-(y), and wave C is the leg that is running now.

Inside wave C, the structure is an impulse. Waves (i) and (ii) are done, and the black (1) and (2) are in place inside the next subdivision. Price is now working through (3) of that sequence, which is why the move feels like a grind instead of a spike.

The whole advance has respected the rising channel from the low. Wave B tagged the lower boundary, and the push since then has been steady.

What are the USDJPY targets for wave (iii) of (5)?

I want 161.157 to 161.614. The 2.618 extension sits at 161.157 and the 1.618 sits at 161.614, so the two ratios stack into one target zone instead of a single line.

The 1 (159.950) level on the chart is the base measurement. Price is trading just under it at 159.890 as I write this, so the extension work is still ahead, not behind.

A clean push into that zone would complete wave (iii) of (5).

Does a wave (iv) pullback mean the USDJPY move is over?

No. After the target zone, I expect a pullback for wave (iv). That is the part I am waiting for.

A fourth wave is a pause inside a trend, not a reversal. It doesn't mean the move is done, and another leg higher in wave (v) should follow. On the chart, I drew the (v) path reaching up toward the 163.000 area, near the top channel boundary.

Traders get this wrong all the time. They see the first real dip after a long run and call it the top. Most of the time it is just wave (iv) doing its job.

What invalidates the bullish USDJPY count?

The count is wrong below 157.257. That level is the low of wave (2), and an impulse cannot trade back below it without breaking the structure.

Until then, dips are just structure. Pullbacks that stay above 157.257 fit the count, including the wave (iv) pullback I am expecting after the target zone.

If price closes under 157.257, I drop this count and rebuild from scratch. No hoping, no moving the line.

This is analysis, not a trade recommendation. The levels are there so you can see exactly what the count needs to stay valid.

Key Takeaways

•USDJPY is grinding through wave (iii) of (5) inside a larger wave C advance on the 4h chart.

•The USDJPY Elliott Wave target zone is 161.157 to 161.614, where the 2.618 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions line up.

•A wave (iv) pullback is expected after the target zone, and it does not end the USDJPY move because wave (v) should follow.

•The bullish USDJPY count is invalidated by a break below 157.257, the low of wave (2).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the USDJPY Elliott Wave target for wave (iii)?

The target zone is 161.157 to 161.614. The 2.618 extension sits at 161.157 and the 1.618 extension sits at 161.614, so both ratios cluster in the same area.

What invalidates the bullish USDJPY Elliott Wave count?

A move below 157.257 invalidates it. That level is the low of wave (2), and an impulse cannot retrace beyond it without breaking the wave structure.

Does a wave (iv) pullback in USDJPY mean the rally is finished?

No. Wave (iv) is a correction inside the trend, and wave (v) should follow it higher. The rally is only in question if price breaks below 157.257.