XAGUSD Elliott Wave: Silver Impulse Targets 52.96, 49.46

Silver is still falling, and this leg looks like a real impulse.

The move started from the triangle top near 67.5. Price has dropped in five waves, bounced to 61.5, and the next leg is now running.

What does the XAGUSD Elliott Wave count look like right now?

The chart shows the end of a larger triangle, labeled A through E, with wave X sitting on top of it. The (c) leg of wave E peaked near 67.5. That is where the decline begins.

From there, the first five-wave structure down is labeled i, ii, iii, iv, v, and it finishes as wave (a) near the 58.6 area. Wave (b) bounced to about 61.5. Now the sub-waves of the new leg are on the chart: wave i ended at 55.4, wave ii at 58.61. We are in wave iii.

Third waves are where the damage gets done. They tend to be the strongest and cleanest part of any impulse.

Where is silver heading next?

Small bounce first, maybe. After that I want more downside, toward 52.96 and 49.46.

Those are the two projection levels printed on the chart: 52.95593 at the 1.0 extension and 49.46299 at the 1.618 extension. My drawn path has price tagging the first, bouncing, then pushing through the second. The trajectory points toward the 46 area by early November.

If you are new to how these targets get built, the fibonacci retracement glossary entry covers the basics. Extensions work on the same logic, measured from the earlier waves.

What invalidates the bearish silver count?

A move above 58.61 kills this count. That is the high of wave ii, marked as the invalidation on the chart.

In an impulse, wave ii cannot retrace beyond the start of wave i. If price trades above 58.61, the structure is no longer a wave iii in progress, and I drop the idea. No debate, no hoping. See invalidation level for how I use these in practice.

Why am I not buying silver here?

No long from me here. Price has to impulse up and pull back before I would even look.

A bounce inside a falling impulse is a counter-move, nothing more. Traders who buy every dip in a third wave are the ones who fund it. Wait for a real five-wave structure up, then a pullback, then think.

For more on how I read gold, silver and oil, see Elliott Wave for commodities.

Key Takeaways

•XAGUSD is in a five-wave impulse down from the triangle top near 67.5, with the current leg labeled as wave iii.

•The Elliott Wave count for silver targets 52.96 (1.0 extension) and 49.46 (1.618 extension) as the next downside levels.

•A move above 58.61, the high of wave ii, invalidates the bearish XAGUSD count.

•Silver may bounce first, but the larger structure still favors more downside after it.

•No long setup exists on XAGUSD until price completes an upside impulse and a pullback.

Frequently Asked Questions

What invalidates the bearish XAGUSD Elliott Wave count?

A move above 58.61 invalidates it. That level is the high of wave ii, and an impulse's wave ii cannot retrace past the start of wave i.

What are the Elliott Wave targets for silver?

The chart shows 52.96 and 49.46 as the next targets. They correspond to the 1.0 and 1.618 extensions for the current wave iii.

Is silver in a correction or an impulse?

The decline from the triangle top near 67.5 counts as a five-wave impulse, followed by a bounce to 61.5. The leg now running is labeled wave iii of a new impulse.